Vanguard Group carried out a study on how accurate some of the common market direction indicators are and the results are interesting.
Vanguard’s bias is that they are a non profit organization that sells the concept that markets cannot be timed and the best way is to keep expenses low and be in the market,.
However, it is interesting to see that 1 year returns cannot be accurately predicted and 10 years return wise, Price Earnings of the market seem to be the way to go.
Still, even price earnings didn’t edge higher than 0.50 proportion of variance which indicates the reliability of these models.
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