Investment Moats

10 year cycle with 5 looks particularly bullish. Could turn out good for 2015

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I still remember 2005 which was after that crazy run in 2003-2004. If you are basing what the market will do on YOUR own experience in the market, then perhaps you have self-con yourself.

Here is an aggregation of different years. There is a forumer who believes 2017 is going to be  drab. almost all recent years in memory have been drab:

  • 1987: Flash crash
  • 1997: Asian Financial Crisis
  • 2007: Great Financial Crisis

What I said about 2005 as an outlier means that basing your investment decisions strictly on this is a rather dangerous endeavor.

[Hat Tip All Star Charts | Why the Decennial Cycle is Bullish for 2015]

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Historical Presidential Cycle

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Presidential Cycles are seasonal cycles that many say it is just coincidence but put the quantitative data together here, you can’t say there isn’t a pattern there:

 

First chart is courtesy of All Star Charts JC Parets who warns that we are now entering the worse time of the presidential cycle.

This chart shows 48 months, starting from post presidential election, the second year of the presidential election, the pre-next election year and finally the next election year.

From this, statistically, the coming 1 year period tends to be lukewarm.

Another person that spots this was Tom McClellan (the son of the guy who found the McClellan indicator) In his case, this chart looks at the pattern for second term presidents. smaller sample set, but looks rather weak as well.

It looks like folks who are looking for a period to add some value stocks could have a window for operations.

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