We play this game knowing that we need to know the few known outcomes rather than then what are the outcome.
Since mid 2009 we have been in a rally till now. This gives us about 3.5 years. Typical bulls are 4 years old and bear 1.5-2 years old. We should be cautious.
I don’t subscribe to the thought that the past 2 major bear peak at the same place and go down to roughly the same place, this time it has to be the same.
It may actually move side ways in a 20% down, 15% up, and so on for 2 years before the new secular market.
Or we could break for a new highs not seen since 2001. Either way, no one is good enough to tell you 100% what will happen.
Your strategy used should be one that work well in any of those outcomes.
[Hat tip | Reformed Broker | Simultaneous Peaks]
Kyith is the Owner and Sole Writer behind Investment Moats. Readers tune in to Investment Moats to learn and build stronger, firmer wealth foundations, how to have a Passive investment strategy, know more about investing in REITs and the nuts and bolts of Active Investing.
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Kyith worked as an IT operations engineer from 2004 to 2019. Currently, he works as a Senior Solutions Specialist in Fee-only Wealth Advisory firm Providend.
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