We play this game knowing that we need to know the few known outcomes rather than then what are the outcome.
Since mid 2009 we have been in a rally till now. This gives us about 3.5 years. Typical bulls are 4 years old and bear 1.5-2 years old. We should be cautious.
I don’t subscribe to the thought that the past 2 major bear peak at the same place and go down to roughly the same place, this time it has to be the same.
It may actually move side ways in a 20% down, 15% up, and so on for 2 years before the new secular market.
Or we could break for a new highs not seen since 2001. Either way, no one is good enough to tell you 100% what will happen.
Your strategy used should be one that work well in any of those outcomes.
Kyith is the Owner and Sole Writer behind Investment Moats. Readers tune in to Investment Moats to learn and build stronger, firmer wealth foundations, how to have a Passive investment strategy, know more about investing in REITs and the nuts and bolts of Active Investing.
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Kyith worked as an IT operations engineer from 2004 to 2019. Currently, he works as a Senior Solutions Specialist in Fee-only Wealth Advisory firm Providend.
His investment broker of choice is Interactive Brokers, which allows him to invest in securities from different exchanges all over the world, at very low commission rates, without custodian fees, near spot currency rates.