The scary thing is after this 4.66% drop, vix hasn’t move much. Still not sure what that is telling us.
notice the top oval. it would seem the EMA(50) and EMA (100) gives good long term signal as to the direction of the market. When the three moving averages cross each other, I don’t think it is wise to bet otherwise.
I saw that coming. My problem is that i don’t trust the technical side of things that well then. That would have saved me more capital.
The second oval at the bottom is more interesting. I drew this white line for a regression through from 1929. It seems the market hovers above it for quite some time before falling off it. I wonder if it will be tested anything soon.
the MACD reading seems to show that there are more long term down side to go. On a weekly charts for 5 years, MACD signals are pretty sluggish, i would expect them to be cut soon.
Short term wise, I think i have missed the opportunity to start a SDS trade. There should be a bounce somewhere. I just have to be patient for it. The risk vs reward for downside short term trade seems higher now.
RSI (2) looks good for a bounce.
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Paul
Tuesday 3rd of March 2009
Hi Drizzt!
were there supposed to be images to your blog post?
It does seem that markets are heading downwards for the time being. A short term rebound might be on the cards as you mentioned but gasp, looks pretty bad.
great blog layout you have there.
Drizzt
Sunday 8th of March 2009
thanks for visiting Paul. I am still with the idea of a sharp rebound. but in this market, it shouldn't surprise you that it will go down furhter. nice blog you have as well