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Micheal Belkin–Bearish but I like his argument

Belkin’s model of earnings and revenue must follow stock prices is something very fundamental. It has helped him with past bear market turns and this time around he is predicting another one in 2013.

Its good to listen to a view that isn’t technical based. And I am leaning towards this view. Earnings are not akin to a bull market. But there is every chance stagnation could happen.

Here is his document

Michael Belkin

Kyith

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John

Friday 19th of October 2012

The writer is suggesting we sell all our equities at abt now after 40 months of biz cycle expansion? I've much diff buying it. Yes, I agree world economy is likely to weaken going forward. But QE3 and cheap financing sud help biz and encourage consumer spending, thus may delay the expected recession, perhaps for a yr or two. Also, looking at his table of recessions, the last 3 recessions had 92 mths 120 mths and 73 mths respectively of prior expansion before recession hit. I think will sell some of my equities case he is partly right.

B

Sunday 14th of October 2012

Love the article.

Good article.

Drizzt

Sunday 14th of October 2012

hi B, hope its useful.

James

Saturday 13th of October 2012

Thanks for sharing the article, a really good read.

Key points I got from it: 1. Historical pattern is: Corporate earnings slumps in recessions make stock prices plummet 2. Extreme SPX/TLT ratio - meaning US bonds should be a good short?

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