So, short-term, sure the price action this past week was very positive. Intermediate-term, there were also potentially some positive developments, which I’m currently monitoring and will be reporting in my short-term updates and newsletter as things evolve. At best, these developments simply mean that the bear market advance out of the March low has not yet run its course. But, longer-term, ” A New Bull Market,” I don’t think so. Have housing prices bottomed? Are foreclosures not still at or near all time highs? Is the consumer still not drowning in debt? Are bankruptcies still not high? Have unemployment levels come down? Is the small business owner still struggling? Are layoffs still not continuing? Are car sales still in the toilet? Are the powers that be still worried about the economy? Did the rally this past week solve your financial issues? I could go on and on, but I think you get the point. The optimism about this week is high and I understand that. Hey, depending on what happens with my intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator, we could see this rally still run further as the advance out of the March low could continue. But, when we back up a look at the big picture, nothing has changed. We are indeed still operating within the worst financial crises this country, if not the world, has ever seen and the Fed’s efforts over the past year or so have not solved the problem. You have been Warned!
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Kyith worked as an IT operations engineer from 2004 to 2019. Currently, he works as a Senior Solutions Specialist in Insurance Start-up Havend. All opinions on Investment Moats are his own and does not represent the views of Providend.
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