Trading Log: Weekly Strategy 23 Aug ’09 $USD,$EEM,$SPY

Long Term Trend

Tough week of trading. The bears were expecting a correction. They got something then it went back up. So what now?

USD

We are always watching to see if there is a change in trend for the $USD. Sadly 78 dollars look like it will be tested. Being a singaporean, i would limit my US stocks trade if i can. The dollar is likely to resume its down trend momentum and from the MACD readings, if it does it will take it down probably to 76. SGD would likely to strengthen against it. Putting a successful trade might jeopardize my profits such that it will be insignificant for the effort put in.

EEM

EEM continues to stay strong on the stochastics and trend. In a bull run, i believe the stochastics can remain high at overbought for some time. I should not get thrown off by this, however, there seems to be a negative divergence on the MACD histogram. We continue to wait for the 50 EMA and 26 EMA to cut the 200 EMA from below. It is entirely possible that 36 will not hold and it really corrects to 32 next week. That may create a better platform for long term growth. A higher move up from here would create a trajectory that might need a hard correction in the near future.

SPY

Can’t shake off the image of the possible retest of the reverse head and shoulders bottom. It looks a continuous uptrend to me.

EWS

Ditto for the EWS

Intermediate Trend

SPY

SPY open with a huge gap down but slowly made up for it by the end of the week ending off with a 1.96% upsurge. MACD looks good to cross over to positive territory. Stochastic not overbought yet. I would watch for negative divergence on the the stochastics next week.

EEM

Same here. Room to move up from here.

EWS

EWS looks to have corrected well short term. look for strength here. we may have room to move up a fair bit.

Summary: Expect to be higher next week. looking to see if there are opportunities around.