We play this game knowing that we need to know the few known outcomes rather than then what are the outcome.
Since mid 2009 we have been in a rally till now. This gives us about 3.5 years. Typical bulls are 4 years old and bear 1.5-2 years old. We should be cautious.
I don’t subscribe to the thought that the past 2 major bear peak at the same place and go down to roughly the same place, this time it has to be the same.
It may actually move side ways in a 20% down, 15% up, and so on for 2 years before the new secular market.
Or we could break for a new highs not seen since 2001. Either way, no one is good enough to tell you 100% what will happen.
Your strategy used should be one that work well in any of those outcomes.
[Hat tip | Reformed Broker | Simultaneous Peaks]