Here’s a nice article on Business Insider on the developments of oil and the future production of it around that region:
It seems that the NPD also accepts that Norwegian peak oil production has passed and it is the nature of the post-peak decline that is the subject of this discussion.
The upper gold band charts Norwegian gas production which is set to grow. The blue band charts NGL which together with oil (green) are forecast to rise in volume in coming years. Chart from the NPD (in Norwegian)
The NPD forecast from 2006 to 2010 is as follows:
Conversion factors given by BP have been used to normalize to mm bpd.
Norwegian average daily production since 2001 (source BP statistical review) was as follows:
The simple, top down approach (Hubbert) to forecasting future Norwegian production is to presume that the established decline rate of around 7% will continue. The NPD approach is more complex and this produces a very different outcome for forecast Norwegian production by the year 2010, less than 5 years from now.
Hubbert linearisation for Norway using BP data (crude+condensate+NGL). It will require a super-human effort to modify the decline curve established since 2001. NB – this is my first HL – but not my last. Thanks to Khebab for assistance.
Two very different forecasts for future oil production in Norway. The difference between the 7% decline model and the NPD forecast is 700,000 bpd by 2010 – the equivalent of two giant fields.
By the year 2010, the NPD are forecasting 2.8 mmbpd while the 7% decline model implies daily production of 2.1 mmbpd. The difference of 700,000 bpd is equivalent to the production from two giant oil fields and is therefore both hugely significant, and difficult to explain away by different forecasting philosophies. Where does the truth lie?
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