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We spend most of our time in the Middle

I thought this little sharing from Joshua Brown of The Reform Broker makes a lot of sense. Most of the media discusses whether we are at the top or bottom. But really most of the time we are in the middle thinking about  tops and bottoms, worrying about whether we are at the top or have we reached the bottom:

Market-timers don’t live long, its a horrible existence.  My friend JC likes to say picking tops and bottoms is the most expensive job on Wall Street.

A lot of the media’s time and attention is spent discussing whether or not something is bottoming (housing, stocks, consumer confidence, ratings, etc) or topping (tech stocks, valuations, bond prices, sentiment).  It’s great conversation but not helpful.

Because most of the time things are not bottoming or topping.  They are middle-ing.  They are churning or they are trending.  Most of the time, there is no inflection point at hand – these are rare occurrences.  So to focus on them to such a great degree is probably a distraction and definitely a waste of time.  And energy and emotion.

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abc

Tuesday 5th of June 2012

We all time the market. Just don't try to catch the top or bottom. Usually, it is quite clear whether it is a growing economy or a recession and that is good enough in terms of timing.

Drizzt

Sunday 3rd of June 2012

Speculator takes in knowledge and attempts to translate to wisdom to execute for a result.

the time frame is just secondary. its just i choose a longer time frame haha.

Jared Seah

Sunday 3rd of June 2012

Drizzt,

You've made me - a speculator - smile :)

Drizzt

Sunday 3rd of June 2012

that is the thing. people put the word investing as something good and speculating is like gambling.

to me investing for 10 years IS speculating.

Createwealth8888

Sunday 3rd of June 2012

Only those practising ETF Cost Averaging are not market timers, the rest of us including value investors are doing some levels of market timing. No meh?

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