There are times when an investor trusts his research so much that most of the “evidence” that he moves to uncover are evidence that puts it in agreement to his argument. And that can be dangerous.
Ritholtz here shows a clear examination of seeking the view of folks opposite to his and examining whether they make sense of it.
I think we should always use what discrete mathematics teaches us as disproving.
When all the evidence that you bring up refutes the opposing thesis, the you are probably right. Else it may prevent you from making a decision based on how your brain behaves.
A rather nice quote I find in that article by Peter Lynch
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” That quote succinctly describes the circumstances for many since the March 2009 lows.
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Kyith worked as an IT operations engineer from 2004 to 2019. Currently, he works as a Senior Solutions Specialist in Fee-only Wealth Advisory firm Providend.
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freedom
Wednesday 18th of December 2013
great quote from Peter Lynch. It reminds that bottom fishing is not for everyone. Most people would do much better by just keep investing along the way when they still have a meaningful long time to invest.
Kyith
Wednesday 18th of December 2013
i guess thats quite true in this 2009 and 2013 situation. cheers for visiting. wish you a merry xmas