There are times when an investor trusts his research so much that most of the “evidence” that he moves to uncover are evidence that puts it in agreement to his argument. And that can be dangerous.
Ritholtz here shows a clear examination of seeking the view of folks opposite to his and examining whether they make sense of it.
I think we should always use what discrete mathematics teaches us as disproving.
When all the evidence that you bring up refutes the opposing thesis, the you are probably right. Else it may prevent you from making a decision based on how your brain behaves.
A rather nice quote I find in that article by Peter Lynch
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” That quote succinctly describes the circumstances for many since the March 2009 lows.