We been talking about a change in long term trend or probably a long overdue correction but i wonder if the recent non direction will actually be the short term correction that worked off the overbought levels.
SPY Weekly
MACD looks to be going negative soon. But it is highly possible that will resume its MACD uptrend to show positive trend movements. That 200 EMA seems awfully difficult to be taken out. I have a hunch that we are going to higher.
EWS Weekly
Compared to the US market, the MSCI Singapore ETF does not have a resistance problem. The indication from MACD seems to be that if you are going for a long term position here, you might as well wait, cause it could actually go both ways and I sort of feel it will end higher rather than lower. 12.50 looks a good target but if it goes lower 10.75 is the support. You are probably looking for a short term 8-10% upside or down side.
Summary
Had you been in this bull for some time, the smart thing to do is take part of the profit off the table. This rally could still have legs into 2010, but the feeling is that if its similar to the 1974 climb, we will be looking into a volatile period of up and down movement to restore the balance. The climb for singapore market looks much more volatile so the correction could be big. We are not looking for a 30-40% down but probably 20% up 20% down range trading to work off these levels, bring moving average up.
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