The key topic for discussion since the start of the year was how hawkish the FED would be to rein in inflation (which they originally say was transitory).
Not many talking heads on the media gave counterpoint that tries to moderate this view until yesterday when Fed chair Jerome Powell sounded less hawkish.
It feels so inevitable and that is when the contrarian in me wonders if everyone feels that way, wouldn’t the market have already priced in the rising yield over a prolonged period?
Hard to believe things will turn out as everyone all anticipated.
Someone on Twitter posted the following 4 charts which allow us to revisit the potential reaction of the stock market, government bond market as the US government shifts their policy from quantitative easings to taper and then rate increases:
The following set of illustrations frames the policies based on whether the policies are easing, pausing or tightening:
And finally, the balance sheet contraction and expansion of the FED’s balance sheet:
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