M1 announced their Q3 2012 results today.
Presentation slides here and financial report here.
The results look bad from a profit point of view, mostly due to higher handset subsidies. This will eventually filter back in cash flows in later quarters.
The free cash flow in the slides look better due to a better receivables and higher payables. Not exactly what we are looking for.
To pay a 130 mil dividend, free cash flow looks pretty tight. M1 usually pays out like 80% of its full year income. I am projecting full year income around 130-140 mil.
Perhaps they can only pay out 100 mil as dividends.
Free cash flow wise I believe full year could hit 140 mil. That would be able to pay for the dividends. (this is taking into account 120 mil of forecast capex)
Some negative stats is that on slide 14, there is a 15% climb in post paid customer acquisition cost. Slide 15 post paid ARPU looks to be veering downwards.