AmFraser have some seriously optimistic cash flow projections for MIIF | Investment Moats Skip to Content

AmFraser have some seriously optimistic cash flow projections for MIIF

Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund is a 9% yielding infrastructure stock listed on the SGX. I am invested in this and talked about my sweet and sour relationship with this stock a fair bit (read here)

MIIF just announced their latest quarter results. There are some good news in that the tax issues of Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC) have been settled and the expected losses are immaterial.

However, it was still not clear how the expected moderation by the Chinese government over toll charges for Hua Nan expressway (HNE) will affect MIIF. I have asked for a sensitivity analysis from the Investor Relations but judging by their record they should not do anything about it.

I am positively surprise by the surge in traffic for HNE. Still the level of debts in this stock can be crazy and what we know is that most are not amortized which means that somewhere down the line, earnings by TBC and HNE may need to scale down to pay the massive debts or to get them refinanced.

Still, I read this report from AmFraser with their projection on how the cash flow of the 3 major assets will progress to.(read report here) I find them a tad optimistic. I would rather estimate based on the worst case scenario.

MIIF probably need 75 mil from the 3 assets since they need 65 mil to distribute the 5.5 cents annual dividend. The closest projection is 43 mil + 22 mil + 6 mil equating to 71 mil. We are still a bit short there but not that big of an issue since MIIF still have a cash horde.

Still I will watch this stock closely since the management in the past have made some rather questionable moves, its underlying have debts that could cripple distributions.

I run a free Singapore Dividend Stock Tracker . It  contains Singapore’s top dividend stocks both blue chip and high yield stock that are great for high yield investing. Do follow my Dividend Stock Tracker which is updated nightly  here.

Vicom with a good set of Q1 2012 results
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