I mention most of my thoughts about Singtel’s Q3 2011 results here. When it comes to cashflow, there are some dark clouds overhanging from potential lawsuits and fines.
Telkomsel in Indonesia
The potential loss on this fine looks very small at less than SGD 10 mil. But the bigger impact could be the tighter competition and reduction in tariffs
AIS in Thailand
This could be the potentially big one. I estimate the share of fines to be around SGD 650 million if it goes through. Singtel’s free cashflow is estimated to be around 3.5 billion so I think its ok.
Bharti in India
The intermediate term effect for this is higher. Managing and resolving these emerging market business can be problematic.
But it also presents the greatest upside! It is a bet on management really. This could be a good cash generating channel.