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Roger Nusbaum Talks about $SDS protection again

Back during the crash of 2007, he talks about the SDS protection then, and it turn out to be a very good call protecting his investors portfolio.

This time round, he makes a case for it again as the stock fell below the 200 day moving average.

I have a similar rule as well as i will liquidate most of my holdings once it crosses the line. Do you have a circuit breaker rule like Roger as well?


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Sunday 30th of May 2010

ST index should drop to 2500 and below.

Thats the level way back in 2006. way before all this CDO and financial stuff. I see that level as fair value. Currently, stock prices are very frothy.. even after the latest "correction"..

Just another view:

We got the June Great Singapore Sales We got Singtel F1 We got the YOG

I see higher taxes and 'levies' to finance all the job credit, infrastructure,.. its pay up time. Keep gold?.. nah.. too expensive for me already.. buy A$ as proxy Foreign money fixed deposit. I see A$ very close to US$ by year end.. meanwhile earn the interest and gain on the exchange rate. The S$ must be weakened to help our exports. If interst rates remain at 1%.. property prices will remain also.. it may not go up anymore, but it wont go down either.

I am just waiting for the interest rates to go up.. and watch the fireworks.. but I think it will take a while more.. about 2 years.. Now I keep liquid in CPF.


Sunday 30th of May 2010

Hello Thanks for sharing information and opinions on investing and issues in general. I do not have trigger points on selling my equities. I hold shares in more than 15 different companies, all of which are traded in the SGX. Current value is less than 500K and if all are sold now, I would only gain 60K less losses.

I believe in holding them ( well not all 15 )till:

A) I am in need to have cash B) I do not believe in the products of the company C) There is no dividend payouts over 2 years

These are not "triggers" in the normal sense. I am holding onto shares that have dropped in value by 90%! for the past 25 years! ( Kian Ho Bearings and Tye Soon ) just lucky they have not gone belly up ( maybe it might be better if they did )

I suppose I do not follow any "technical" analysis and am catergorised as the "stupid" investor. All my purchases were made with monies that I am willing to lose and will not affect my financial position now or ever. My friends have suggested that I would probably have a better chance in the casinos then to let my money sit in lousy stocks!

My strategy has always been buy in even lots - 10000, 8000 or 2000 - reason is if they go up in price, I will sell one half and keep the other completely free of costs. This has worked for counters such as Singtel, Semcorp,Sembmarine UOB.. mostly the blue chips..

I see that you do lots of research and calculations and active balancing. It is of course a very scientific way. But markets are moved by sentiments and not by fundermentals I just buy and keep till kingdom come. I am now doing comparisons and selecting counters in the SGX. Once the general STI drops below 2500.. I will be buying again. That level is just a number that I use.. no calculations, now analysis, no reason except that its low enough to grab my attention, and my affordability.

Would you share your opinions about my shopping style?

Thanks for the time..


Sunday 30th of May 2010

Hi Ron, thanks for sharing your insights.

The thing about buying and selling methods is that people tend to try and quantify and generalize it. I find that the difference between Roger and us is that essentially he is managing peoples money, and there are alot of things he cant do, even if his conviction believes so. These circuit breakers are those things that enable him to have an edge.

Ron, i find it interesting that you talk about dropping below 2500. do you think that will be the case?

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