Back in end 2015, my friend picked up news on the Facebook feed on the news that USD will be strengthening further.
During that period the USD to SGD is at a rather high point of 1.43.
The implication of this currency on every day folks like myself is that when USD is down it makes shopping at Amazon to be cheaper. If I am anticipating USD dollar to be rising, I should be making the decision to purchase what I would like to purchase today.
Alas, if you look at this USD versus SGD chart, you would see that the price of USD against SGD went the opposite direction.
Had you purchase what you want to buy in December 2015, you might be kicking yourself.
The lesson learn here is that: Newspaper writes commentaries on bank analyst’s opinion on price direction. It is hard for them to be seen as experts unless they are quantitative about it, using some technical indicators as such. Even in that case, there are also failure patterns.
If you rely on opinions in the newspaper to make decisions, you are most likely going to get it wrong, because newspapers are often the slowest.
The second lesson here is on purchasing things. It is either you need it or it is just a want. If you really need it, or you really want it, just buy it at a price where it is cheaper than what you can get in Singapore.
It is hard to predict currency movements to such an accurate degree.